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Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks
dc.contributor.author | Pinto, Oscar A. | |
dc.contributor.author | Muñoz Martínez, Miguel Ángel | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2014-03-26T12:19:26Z | |
dc.date.available | 2014-03-26T12:19:26Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2011 | |
dc.identifier.citation | Pinto, O.A.; Muñoz, M.A. Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks. Plos One, 6(7): e21946 (2011). [http://hdl.handle.net/10481/31127] | es_ES |
dc.identifier.issn | 1932-6203 | |
dc.identifier.other | doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0021946 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10481/31127 | |
dc.description.abstract | Some epidemics have been empirically observed to exhibit outbreaks of all possible sizes, i.e., to be scale-free or scale-invariant. Different explanations for this finding have been put forward; among them there is a model for “accidental pathogens” which leads to power-law distributed outbreaks without apparent need of parameter fine tuning. This model has been claimed to be related to self-organized criticality, and its critical properties have been conjectured to be related to directed percolation. Instead, we show that this is a (quasi) neutral model, analogous to those used in Population Genetics and Ecology, with the same critical behavior as the voter-model, i.e. the theory of accidental pathogens is a (quasi)-neutral theory. This analogy allows us to explain all the system phenomenology, including generic scale invariance and the associated scaling exponents, in a parsimonious and simple way. | es_ES |
dc.description.sponsorship | The authors acknowledge financial support from the Spanish MICINN-FEDER under project FIS2009-08451, from Junta de Andalucía Proyecto de Excelencia P09FQM-4682, and from the Acción Integrada Hispano-Argentina, MICINN AR2009-0003. | es_ES |
dc.language.iso | eng | es_ES |
dc.publisher | Public Library of Science (PLOS) | es_ES |
dc.rights | Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 License | es_ES |
dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ | es_ES |
dc.subject | Bacterial pathogens | es_ES |
dc.subject | Epidemiological statics | es_ES |
dc.subject | Measles | es_ES |
dc.subject | Meningitis | es_ES |
dc.subject | Mutation | es_ES |
dc.subject | Neutral theory | es_ES |
dc.subject | Pathogens | es_ES |
dc.subject | Percolation | es_ES |
dc.title | Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks | es_ES |
dc.type | journal article | es_ES |
dc.rights.accessRights | open access | es_ES |